Days
The fast-moving half of the board. One line each, all on the same 0–365 day axis, so the shapes are comparable even where the numbers are not.
Missed call
days since the call
The only record in the system that really is a same-day job. By the end of the week it is worth a fraction of what it was on Tuesday morning, and it never recovers.
Unsold repair
days since you quoted it
A repair is a small decision, so it ripens fast and goes off fast. Three days to a fortnight is the whole window.
Unsold replacement
days since you quoted it
A bigger number takes longer to think about, so the peak sits later and the tail is much longer. A quote from two months ago is still worth a call.
Unsigned estimate
days since you quoted it
The generic unsigned estimate, for files that do not say which kind it was. Shaped like the other two and deliberately no more confident than that.
Read those four together and the rule falls out: the peak is never day zero except for the missed call. A quote needs a few days to become a question the customer is ready to answer, and the bigger the ticket the longer that takes — a repair peaks around day 3, a replacement around day 5. Ringing on day one is not keen, it is early, and it collects a no that the quote had not earned yet.
Show the numbers
| Record | day 0 | 1d | 2d | 3d | 5d | 7d | 10d | 14d | 21d | 30d | 45d | 60d | 90d | 120d | 180d | 270d | 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missed call | 100% | 92% | 74% | 44% | 44% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Unsold repair | 80% | 80% | 80% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 80% | 80% | 45% | 45% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Unsold replacement | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 88% | 88% | 60% | 60% | 34% | 34% | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Unsigned estimate | 74% | 74% | 74% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 83% | 83% | 52% | 52% | 29% | 29% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Months
The slow half, and the one most shops read wrong in the same direction: they call these far too early, decide the list is dead, and stop.
Deferred repair
months since they said not today
Straight after they decline is the worst moment to ring — you are asking them to change their mind. A couple of months later you are asking a new question.
Maintenance due
months since the last tune-up
Nothing to say at five months. By eight to ten they are genuinely overdue and the call has a reason that is not selling.
Lapsed member
months since the plan lapsed
The window is short. Two to four months out they still think of themselves as your customer; after a year they have made other arrangements.
Dormant customer
months since their last job
The slowest curve on the site and the most misread. Somebody eight months quiet is not lapsed, they are just between jobs. Fifteen to eighteen months is where the call lands.
Show the numbers
| Record | now | 1mo | 2mo | 3mo | 4mo | 6mo | 8mo | 10mo | 12mo | 15mo | 18mo | 22mo | 24mo | 30mo | 36mo | 48mo | 60mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deferred repair | 55% | 55% | 100% | 100% | 82% | 82% | 82% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% |
| Maintenance due | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 60% | 100% | 100% | 80% | 80% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Lapsed member | 70% | 70% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Dormant customer | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 22% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 100% | 100% | 74% | 74% | 74% | 46% | 46% | 26% |
The two that count down instead
Warranties and plan renewals are not decaying, they are approaching. The shape is inverted: worth most just before the date, and worth much less once it has gone past.
Warranty ending
days until the warranty ends
A countdown, not a decay. Worth most in the last two months before it ends, because there is a real, dated reason to call that has nothing to do with selling.
Membership expiring
days until the plan renews
Same shape, tighter window. A month out is the moment; after it lapses you are having a different, harder conversation.
These are the two easiest calls in the business and the two most often missed, because nothing in field software puts a date in front of you. They are also the calls that do not feel like selling, which is worth more than the tickets are.
Show the numbers
| Record | 180d | 150d | 120d | 90d | 60d | 45d | 30d | 14d | 7d | day 0 | +7d | +30d | +60d | +90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warranty ending | 20% | 20% | 60% | 60% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 25% | 25% |
| Membership expiring | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 70% | 70% | 100% | 100% | 90% | 90% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% |
And what you have already done to it
Two curves that are not about the record at all. One counts how many times you have already asked; the other how long since you last did.
Every time you chase it again
times already contacted
The fourth attempt is worth around three-fifths of the first. This is not the record cooling — it is you having already asked.
Time since you last spoke to them
days since the last contact
Ringing back the same afternoon is worth less than waiting two days. After ten weeks of silence the record has gone quiet whatever else is true of it.
The second one has the same shape as the quotes, for the same reason. Calling back a few hours later reads as pressure; two days later reads as follow-through. And the compliance side of the board enforces the floor of that curve directly — nobody contacted in the last three days is offered to you at all, and six attempts with no reply stops the record.
Show the numbers
| Record | never | 1× | 2× | 3× | 4× | 5× | 6× | 7× | 8× | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Every time you chase it again | 100% | 100% | 93% | 79% | 61% | 46% | 34% | 34% | 34% | ||||
| Time since you last spoke to them | 86% | 86% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 87% | 87% | 64% | 64% | 64% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
What these are and are not
Not a survey
Nobody was polled and no industry average was averaged. These are the timing curves inside the scoring engine, sampled by calling it. They encode ordinary trade judgement about when a conversation is welcome.
Not a prediction about you
They shift the order of records against each other. None of them is a claim that a given call will or will not close, and none of them is tuned to your shop until you have logged real outcomes.
One factor of several
Timing is multiplied by ticket size, equipment age, customer history, season and lead source before anything is ranked. The whole calculation is published, including the caps on it.
Checkable
Every figure on this page has a table under its chart, and the page is regenerated from the engine on every build. If the model changes and the page does not, the build fails rather than shipping.
Questions this raises
How long is a missed call worth chasing?
About two days. Backlog scores a missed call at 100% on the day it comes in, 74% two days later and 22% after a week, where it flattens out and stays. It is the only record in the system that is genuinely a same-day job.
When should you follow up on an unsold estimate?
Not the same day. Every quote in the model is worth less on the day it was written than it is a few days later — a repair peaks around day 3 and a replacement around day 5. The bigger the number, the longer the customer takes to think about it, and chasing before they have is how a quote gets a no it did not have to get.
Is an old estimate worth anything at all?
A replacement quote, yes, for a long time: it is still at 60% of its peak at two months and 34% at four. A small repair is not — it is down to 45% inside six weeks. Ticket size is what decides whether an old quote is worth the call, which is why the board ranks on expected value rather than age.
How long before a customer counts as dormant?
Later than most shops assume. Backlog barely reacts before eight months — someone quiet since spring is between jobs, not lost. The curve peaks at 15 months and is still at 74% two years out. Calling too early is the more common mistake.
What about a repair the customer already declined?
Give it time. Straight after they say no is the weakest moment on the whole curve — 55% — because you are asking them to reverse a decision they just made. Two to three months later it is a different conversation and the model scores it at 100%.
Where do these numbers come from?
They are not survey figures or industry averages, and they are not claims about your shop. They are the timing curves inside Backlog's own scoring engine, sampled by running it — the same functions that rank a real file. They encode ordinary trade experience about when a conversation is welcome, and they are published here so you can disagree with them.